When the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine started, I figured that one of the first things Russia would do was target Ukrainian energy production. After all, it is what the US did when we went against the Serbians.

However, despite massive missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and military positions, this massive campaign of energy grid destruction didn’t happen. At least until last month, over two years since the start of the SMO.

You might say, “but Oceanus, Russia clearly targeted Ukrainian power production in the past.” While this is true, it is only true to an extent. Prior to this month, attacks on the energy grid were relegated to small electric substations that could be repaired quickly.

It was an annoyance to the Ukrainians and their armed forces, but it wasn’t a game ending scenario that they could not recover from. As you can see, Ukraine has been holding a good defense for over two years now.

Then fast forward to March 2024. There was a terror attack at a concert hall in Moscow. The terrorists, according to Russia, had ties to the Ukrainian state. Don’t shoot the messenger here, that is what they said.

The next thing we see are massive missile and drone strikes targeting actual power plants. Every strike that has come since last month has been targeting large power production facilities across the country. Just the other day, the largest power plant in Kiev was completely destroyed with missile strikes.

Unlike the small electric substation strikes of years past, these power plants will take a long time to repair or rebuild. I doubt the Russians, with their air power, will allow such a process to occur.

Why Is This Significant?

This means that the Russians have most likely moved on to a new phase of the Special Military Operation. The reasons why they had, until now, avoided targeting large power production facilities is known only to the Russian leadership.

My personal theory is that the Russians had initially wanted to take the country with minimal damage to important infrastructure. This isn’t like the US operation in Serbia, where anything went because the Americans had no intentions of taking Serbian land and incorporating it into the States.

Now, Ukraine has a big problem. The Russians spared them these strikes during winter, but the next winter will come, and these facilities will most likely not be operable during that time. Many Ukrainians will be spending their time freezing in the cold.

This creates a giant morale problem, which is probably what Russia is aiming for. If the civilian population starts becoming disgruntled, it will be harder for the Kiev government to continue the war.

None of the Western equipment or money that is being funneled constantly into the country will matter if the will to fight is gone. We learned that lesson during the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

We had assumed that the government there would carry on the fight without our oversight. That didn’t happen, and the Taliban rolled into Kabul in three days.

Despite my initial analysis in February of 2022, Ukraine is not Afghanistan. That is evident in the fact that they didn’t roll over in a week as the Russians came rolling in.

I was sure that, given they were unprepared because Zelensky had kept insisting that there was going to be no invasion, they would fold quickly. To their credit, they have kept up this fight for over two years in the face of overwhelming numbers.

Now they have a problem. Their lights are off, their heaters are off, their electricity is off. They have no air support. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Russians are enjoying everything that the Ukrainians lack.

I have said this multiple times, but now I am even more convinced. Unless some sort of miracle happens, Ukraine is not going to win this conflict. It can be drawn out for a long time, but ultimately the Russians, with their overwhelming numbers and air superiority, will come out the victors.

The only way I see that changing is if Putin is somehow killed, or if this becomes a full out war between Russia and NATO, and even then that is iffy because Russia has been in a state of military mobilization for years while NATO would have to scramble to catch up.

Conclusion

The tactics of the Russians have clearly changed. What they did not do in the first two years of the conflict, they are doing now. With the Western forces drawn thin with hot spots in Europe, Israel, and China, I do not know how long this fight can last.

This is a shot in the dark and I could be completely wrong later, but I am going to say that Ukraine will capitulate either by the end of this year or early 2025. We will have to see how the winter of 2024 goes. If the trends I see continue, I don’t think this conflict will last until 2026.