We have been hearing the term “rules based order” a lot recently. Every time Biden or one of his mouthpieces goes up on their podium and talks about world events they end up using it in regards to places like Russia or China. This order that they talk so much about is one that they have carefully handcrafted for years. Since the end of the Cold War, there seemed to be this big consensus where the world as it was post-1991 would be the world going forward. Aside from small hiccups like the collapse of Yugoslavia, this was pretty much how it was. Francis Fukuyama proudly proclaimed that this was the end of history and that we have achieved humanity’s final stage of growth: liberal democracy.

Of course, the rules based order should really just be called the American based order, since it didn’t seem to apply when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan after the tragic events of 9/11. For the sake of consistency though, I will continue to refer to it by the name given by our wise administration currently occupying the White House. So let us just yet again ignore those hiccups in Iraq and Afghanistan, because even though you could argue that the rules based order stopped there, it really didn’t because of the nature of the rules based order. After all, the rules based order ultimately won there until two years ago.

I would argue that the rules based order started falling apart during the Syrian Civil War that started in 2011. This was supposed to be the great climax of the Arab Spring, which had already claimed the governments of multiple Middle Eastern and North African states. The rules based order had spread even further into this territory. The Assad family, who had been a thorn in the West’s side for years, was the next to go. For a short time, it looked like they would. Then something happened. The Assad Government proved to be pretty competent at eliminating Western-backed rebels. Even after the rise of ISIS and numerous US interventions due to the alleged use of chemical weapons, the Assad government still stands today. Now they are being helped by the Russians and Iranians. This was the first crack in the rules based order.

The second crack was Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Prior to this, Pro-Western protestors staged a coup of the government in Kiev. Russia was expected to take this laying down. That did not happen, instead, they took a vital seaport and staging ground from the new Ukrainian regime. Ethnic Russians in the east of the country began seceding, which launched the Ukrainian Civil War that ultimately turned into a war between the Ukrainians and Russia proper that has been going on since 2022. This war, which initially looked as if Russia was doing poorly due to preparation issues, has taken a turn in Russia’s favor over the past year. Their logistical and manpower problems have been fixed with the mobilization that started last September. Their strategy seems to have been to dig in and let the Ukrainian military crash against their defenses. This war is not a stalemate, Russia is just waiting for the Ukrainians to exhaust themselves. Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of digging in and waiting for Russia to come to them. They need to retake the territory lost during the opening rounds of the invasion.

The third blow to the rules based order didn’t come from outside of the West, but within it. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 was, by all rights, not supposed to happen. The US was supposed to have Hillary Clinton as the president. With Donald Trump in the White House, the rules based order essentially had a virus running around within it. Trump’s strides in making relationships with leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un was completely unacceptable. The rules based order struck back with the introduction of Covid to the world. We can argue whether Trump did enough to combat the order or not, that is besides the point. He did enough internal damage that allowed some of the pillars of the base to collapse fighting internal threats instead of focusing outwards. This also consolidated after January sixth, which had resulted in a large chunk of the American citizenry being labeled as a threat to this order.

Then the fourth blow came. Afghanistan, which had been occupied by the US for over 20 years, fell to the Taliban in under three days. A ragtag group of Islamist rebels destroyed the regime that the US spent 20 years building in three days, after American estimates that it would take at least 70 days to do this. The rules based order lost one of their checks against Iran in the Middle East.

The fifth blow came from the launch of the Russian Federation’s Special Military Operation into Eastern Ukraine. Nobody believed that Putin would push the button. Zelensky himself before the invasion commenced said that there was no reason to worry, even though there was a mass of military buildup on the borders between Ukraine and Russia. This resulted in confused border guards getting a rude awakening on the night of February 24th, 2022 when Russian vehicles just burst through the checkpoints. Many people, myself included, figured that we were about to see the next Afghanistan where a Western backed military would just dissolve overnight. To Ukraine’s credit, they did a good job of getting reorganized enough to stop the Russians from just completely blitzkrieging them. Ever since, the entire weight of the rules based order has been dedicated to providing the Ukrainians with arms and money needed to act as a meat shield against Russia. For a moment, it looked like this would be a low risk, high reward task to which many Western countries happily agreed.

Until other things started happening. After warning House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not to travel to Taiwan, and her doing so, the Chinese started their numerous military exercises around the island, forcing the US to divert resources to Taiwan in an effort to counter China. All of this is happening, mind you, as the US is facing economic downturn and social unrest at home. We are literally running out of funds and supplies for this.

Then, something unexpected happened. Hamas started its own military incursion into the State of Israel. This forced the US to divert aid that was meant for Ukraine to Israel. For a moment, it looked like there was a real chance for Hamas forces coming out of Gaza to link up with the West Bank. Luckily for Israel, they were able to organize enough to prevent this from happening. The bad news for Israel and the West is that Hamas isn’t the only player in the game. Hezbollah in Lebanon have been bogging down the Israeli Army in the north with men that they could use for the occupation of Gaza. In the south, Yemen’s Houthi movement have been sending missiles and drones to attack southern Israeli towns and ships, while capturing ships crossing the Red Sea. The US has found our bases being bombarded by militant groups in the region. The only question now is how much further this escalates and if Iran gets involved.

As all this is going on, Venezuela held a referendum on the third of December to decide the fate of neighboring Guyana. There is a region in the west of Guyana that has apparently been claimed by Venezuela for years. However, this region has found to be rich in oil which is probably why the issue of annexation was brought up now. The vote was held, and a majority voted yes for annexation. Now it is up to the Bolivarian government in Venezuela to decide what to do. When they actually start the operation to annex this part of Guyana, as of this moment, I do not know. What I do know is that Brazil and the US are heavily against such a move. We may be seeing a new war brewing in South America in the near future, in America’s back yard.

So, unless some sort of miracle occurs, I do not see the Western “rules based order” surviving for very long. This order, which was probably meant to preserve peace in the world when it was first conceptualized, has turned into a means to enforce Western hegemony. It is clear that it ticked off states like Russia who felt like they weren’t welcome to the club despite overtures made during the initial Post-Soviet era. The UN is still a useless organization, just a new League of Nations in all but name that just so happened to live longer. Though for how long (at least in its current form) remains to be seen. America had a chance after 1991 to turn the 21st century into the American Century and they fumbled the ball hard through internal decadence and external mismanagement. Yes, I am predicting an end to the rules based order as we know it within the next few years or within the decade. The only question now is what replaces it.

Oceanus